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EPL and Bundesliga Predictions 9/14/2019

We Are Back!

The International break is finally over! We had some good results during the past few days but we will always prefer club football. Big weekend is in front of us with a lot of games with great value. After that, we will have more predictions for the first leg of the Champions League. But let’s start with our selections for Saturday. A piece of small advice here be extra careful with playing favourites this week usually, after an international break, the big cubs tend to slip and lose points from smaller teams especially when they are playing away from home.

 

🇩🇪 BUNDESLIGA 🇩🇪

FC Cologne-Borussia Monchengladbach

Over 2.5 goals & BTTS at 1.9 (2 units)

We are starting with the 100th Rhein derby. These two teams know each other very well and we expect to see a classic German football with a lot of chances for both sides and of course a lot of goals. Cologne has lost more games against Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga than any other side. The “Billy Goats” performances against Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund over their opening two matches gave them some cause for optimism despite back-to-back defeats. They managed to beat Freiburg away from home in the last round and now for sure they will very motivated to put another good performance in front of their fans. Cologne has scored at home in their last 29 league matches. 11 of their last 12 matches were over 2.5 goals while they have only kept 6 clean sheets at the Rhein Energy Stadion since the start of 2017/2018 season. Borussia has had a balanced start of the season (1W, 1D, 1L). That’s now just two losses in their last 10 competitive games and they won 6 of their 9 away games in 2019. Alassane Plea and new signing Breel Embolo have both found the back of the net at least once this season and we expect them to continue this trend. Goals are expected in this match but we don’t see either of the team to keep a clean sheet.

 

Augsburg-Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS at 1.83 (1 Unit)

Winless so far, Augsburg couldn’t start this season much worse. Coach Martin Schmidt will have had plenty to think about over the International break, with his Augsburg side now winless in seven league matches. Interestingly, Frankfurt was the last team they managed to take all three points off. They have managed to score in every league match so far though, with all four of their goals this term arriving within the first 15 minutes of either half. However, it’s their defensive record that will worry the coach, with Augsburg’s average of 3 goals conceded per Bundesliga game the division’s second-worst ahead of the round. Notably, six of the nine goals they have conceded arrived in the second half. Eintracht Frankfurt lost their opening away match against the leaders in the table RB Leipzig. Both teams scored in that game, which has now been the case in Frankfurt's last five away league matches and happened in 65% of their away league matches last campaign. Andre Silva has signed on loan from AC Milan with Ante Rebic finally getting his desired move by going in the opposite direction. Silva may get his debut up front alongside Dutch striker Bas Dost against defensively suspect Augsburg. Both teams scored in seven of their last nine league H2H meetings (78%) and we don’t think we will see a 1-1 type of game here.

 

RB Leipzig- Bayern Munich

RB Leipzig to Win & BTTS at 5.5 (0.5 units)

The big game in this round between the current leaders in the table and the champions! Whatever we say about these two teams will not make our decision easier of who will be the winner here. This is one of those type of games that 1 mistake will decide the final result. Bayern managed to win 6 of their last 8 games against Leipzig draw 1 and lose only once. Bayern is undefeated in their last 17 matches in the Bundesliga and they managed to keep a clean sheet in their last 3 matches against RB Leipzig in all competition. We don’t see such a result again. The home team is undefeated in 18 of their last 19 matches and scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 11. Julian Nagelsmann managed to beat Bayern last season while he was still coaching Hoffenheim and it looks like this is a perfect time for him to do it again. Munich got Perisic and Coutinho and they hope they will replace Robben and Ribery but we don’t see this happening for 1 or 2 weeks. These players are good but they have never played in the Bundesliga and we expect that they will not be ready on 100% for such a big test yet. Small lean on the 2-1 correct score!

 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

 

Wolverhampton-Chelsea

Wolverhampton to win at 2.9 (1 unit)

Despite being winless this Premier League campaign (3D, 1L), Wolves can go 11 top-flight home games unbeaten for the first time since 1971/1972. Though the home crowd will be optimistic of a positive result, only four of Wolves 23 goal attempts across their opening 2 home fixtures have hit the target but against the weak Chelsea defence, we expect that number to go up. Wolves managed to beat Chelsea last year when they still have Hazard in the team, now he is gone. Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Reece James and Callum Hudson-Odoi are also out and Kante, Pedro, Kovacic and Rudiger are still not 100% fit after their minor injuries. Wolves don’t have such a big problem with the squad and this looks a perfect time for them to get their first win for the season. Only newly promoted Norwich City have conceded more goals than Chelsea so far this season, and Lampard’s men have shipped a worrying 2.25 goals per 90 Premier League minutes since the summer. Wolves maintained a brilliant record against the division’s best sides last season, and Wanderers took four points from six in their meetings with Chelsea in 2018/19. With Chelsea’s fragility at the back and Wolves’ excellent home form considered, we think there is value in backing the home win this weekend.

 

 

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